With BMG’s parent company Bertelsmann in talks to acquire Concord in a deal that could be worth more than $6.6 billion, two of the largest indie music companies are primed to create what many are already calling the “fourth major” record label group, joining Universal Music Group (UMG), Sony Music Group (SMG) and Warner Music Group (WMG) at the table.

While any BMG-Concord merger would absolutely create a new, massive player in the industry, it wouldn’t necessarily stack up alongside UMG, SMG and WMG in the ways industry observers may expect. So, would BMG-Concord be a fourth major? What would being a “quiet” major actually mean? And how are we supposed to measure all these things, anyway?

Here’s an FAQ for those wondering what the ramifications of the BMG-Concord merger could be.

(In a statement sent to Billboard for this story, a BMG spokesperson said, “We’re aware of recent media speculation. As a policy, we do not comment on market rumors or unconfirmed reports.” Concord declined to comment.)

What Is A Major Label, Anyway?

Often, when discussing majors vs. indies, the definition hinges on market share: The majors have a lot of it; the indies, dispersed as they are, have a little of it individually. That’s often why indies band together via trade organizations like Merlin to negotiate deals with digital service providers — by operating collectively, indie labels have enough combined market share to have a seat at the table alongside the three existing behemoths and can negotiate on a similar playing field, at least theoretically. Consider that at the end of 2025, the U.S. overall market was divided up by Universal’s 38.96%, Sony’s 27.48% and Warner’s 18.87%; the indies, by distribution ownership, totaled 14.69%. (By label ownership, the indies traditionally hover around a collective 35%, though many indie labels use major-owned distribution — and distribution of bigger indie labels has become one of the characteristics that qualifies the majors as majors.)

So, Would BMG Be a Major?

BMG purchasing Concord would not, in a market share sense, materially change the above dynamic. BMG finished 2025 with an overall U.S. market share of 0.85%, while Concord came in at 1.81%. Combined, the two would make up just 2.66% overall market share in the U.S. — about the size of Sony’s fifth-largest division, Epic Records.

So, If Not Market Share, Then What?

But market share isn’t what this potential merger is about — nor is it what would define the combined companies’ place in the industry. Instead, the two could become a sort of “quiet major” — one that is exceptionally strong in publishing and catalog rights, with an estimated $2 billion in combined annual revenue, giving it the financial power to both compete on any catalog acquisition deal and beef up a frontline business that, for both, has shown potential in recent years.

BMG generated 963 million euros ($1 billion) in 2024, up from 663 million euros ($784.13 million) in 2021, which makes it among the fastest-growing independent music companies. (BMG is slated to report full-year 2025 revenues on March 26.) Concord is expected to generate less than BMG; though, with its recent acquisitions of STEM and the Broadway Licensing Group, as well as continued trajectory growth, it could also reach the $1 billion mark, if not in 2025 then by 2026, according to industry observers. That would put the two companies’ combined revenue in the neighborhood of $2 billion.

For comparison’s sake, for the full fiscal year of 2024 — the most recent year for which every company’s figures are available — WMG made $6.4 billion in revenue; Sony Music made 1.8 billion yen, or around $12 billion at the time; and UMG’s revenue was 11.8 billion euros, or around $12.8 billion at the time.

What About in Publishing?

BMG’s revenue in the past has been split, with about two-thirds coming from publishing and one-third from recorded masters. These days, however, thanks in part to its Broken Bow imprint, that percentage split is closer to 60%-40%, financial observers estimate. Meanwhile, Concord’s revenue was weighted in the opposite direction in the past, with its record labels generating about 55%-60% of its revenue, leaving publishing with 40%-45%. Calculating BMG’s and Concord’s percentages against their respective $1 billion estimated revenue numbers likely results in publishing coming in at 50%, or $1 billion. That would put them in the same ballpark as Warner Chappell, which had $1.3 billion in publishing revenue in its most recent fiscal year.

Wait, You Said “Quiet Major”? What Does That Mean?

On the record label side of things, the $2 billion in revenue may qualify a combined BMG and Concord as a major — but that’s where the term “quiet major” kicks in. Both companies were initially built as catalog operations. The re-animated BMG launched with publishing acquisitions in 2008. And, beginning in 2005, when Steve Smith took over Bicycle Music — one of Concord’s predecessor companies — that organization also initially focused on publishing acquisitions, though it also acquired Wind-Up Records before merging with Concord in 2015. Before that merger, Concord focused on acquiring catalogs, but it also liked the record labels side of the business, acquiring such well-known indie labels as Fantasy Records and Rounder Records.

For years, both companies were content to work catalog records, which bring in predictable revenue and steady profits, eschewing the riskier and costlier hit music marathon of front-line record labels. But in recent years that has changed, thanks to BMG’s ownership of Broken Bow Music — home to artists like Lainey Wilson and Jason Aldean, among others — and other frontline investments, while Concord has been the beneficiary of PULSE Records, which has produced hit music for both its publishing and record label side, most notably Tommy Richman’s Billboard Hot 100 No. 2 hit “Million Dollar Baby” two years ago.

Which is to say, the two companies have largely, and successfully, operated mostly in the background businesses of the music industry for the past two decades, quietly generating revenue and working closely with artists and songwriters in the trenches without really going toe to toe with the giants of the industry on the charts and in the mainstream hit-making conversation. But that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t have formidable clout to move more assertively into those areas in the future with their combined resources.

Still, if the merger happens, BMG and Concord will have an uphill battle if they want to compete on the frontline hit segment of the record label marketplace. On a unit basis, the combined BMG-Concord entity had 25.3 million consumption units in the U.S. in 2025, but its current unit count — releases within the past 18 months — only totaled 3.435 million units, meaning its current unit count is only 13.57% of the combined entity’s total. In the U.S. market, the three existing majors have current units at 20% or above, with WMG the lowest at 20.6% of its 179.34 million in total consumption units in 2025; Sony’s at 22.33% of its 261.13 million album consumption units; and UMG’s at 22.77% of its 370.27 million album consumption units last year in the U.S. (All Billboard calculations are based on Luminate data.)

How many artists do the companies have?

Concord supports more than 125,000 artists as of July 2025, according to a report published in July 2025 by rating agency KBRA for Concord’s most recent securitization. That information is not readily available for BMG.

How many songs would the companies have if they combined their portfolios of music catalogs? And how much might that be worth?

BMG owns more than 3 million musical compositions and around half a million sound recordings, according to a press release the company put out in 2024, while Concord has a catalog of some 1.3 million songs, according to the KBRA report. Combined, the two companies would have at least 4.3 million songs in their catalogs, which is significant but still trails the majors. Sony holds more than 6.3 million songs in its catalog, for example, according to its most recent quarterly filing.

Concord has used more than 1 million of its roughly 1.3 million music assets as collateral for asset-backed securities, and, in the rating report for its most recent issuance, that catalog of over 1 million music assets was estimated to be worth $5.117 billion, making the full value of its catalog higher than that total. Billboard was not able to determine the value of BMG’s catalog.

What Other Metrics Should I Know About?

Beyond revenue, the combined entity would have its fair share of hits, as the publishing side of the company would have 8.68% in Hot 100 market share for 2025, according to Billboard’s calculation based on Harry Fox-supplied publisher quarterly data. If nothing else, based on their track record — with BMG typically placing fifth and either Concord or its Pulse operation often placing in the second half of the top 10 publishing rankings for the Hot 100 — a combined BMG and Concord could consistently vie with Kobalt for the number four spot.

Who Are the Investors That BMG is Negotiating With? How Does That Compare to BMG’s Ownership?

Concord’s majority investor is the State of Michigan’s Retirement System, with Connecticut-based asset manager Great Mountain Partners as a minority investor. BMG’s majority owner is Bertelsmann, one of the oldest media companies in the world, which is still privately held by the founding Bertelsmann and Mohn families. Thomas Coesfeld, the BMG CEO who will become Bertelsmann’s CEO in 2027, is the grandson of Reinhard Mohn, who led the company from 1947. The Mohn family still owns 19% of Bertelsmann, while 80% of shares are controlled by foundations (Bertelsmann Stiftung, Reinhard Mohn Stiftung, BVG-Familienstiftung, BVG-Stiftung). Sources say that even with the merger, the Michigan Retirement System is not planning to fully cash out all of its holdings.

What About Distribution?

One other aspect of the combined entity’s status would be its distribution pipeline. Currently, Concord is distributed by UMG. BMG, meanwhile, recently unwound itself from its longstanding association with Warner Music’s ADA and struck direct deals with the digital service providers while partnering with UMG for physical distribution. If the two were to properly become a fourth major, that association with UMG would presumably have to be severed. If the combined entity decides to go down that path, Concord may already have the building blocks in its back pocket thanks to its 2025 acquisition of Stem Distribution.

Does the combined entity need its own distribution arm to be considered a major? Some would say yes. But distribution these days is more about systems than it is people in the field or on the phones. Keeping track of the billions of transactions and mining them for opportunity is one of the main attributes offered by the majors. As it is, BMG is going direct with the big digital service providers like Spotify, Apple and Amazon, while leaving the smaller DSPs to be handled by UMG, although, if Luminate market share is any indicator, some DSPs are still handled by BMG.

What Other Dominos Could Fall?

Sources suggest that the current talks represent the second or third time in the last 10 years that BMG and Concord have considered merging, although this time the talks are much further along and appear more likely to happen. That means more things could happen in the marketplace that could shore up any combined entity and make it more able to compete with giant competitors.

Could that mean purchasing another distribution company? It’s possible — over the past half-decade, dozens of distribution companies have cropped up as entrepreneurs, and label veterans have raced to offer services companies to cater to the growing middle class of creators enabled by digital music. That has also led to consolidation: UMG has a major pending deal to buy Downtown Music and recently acquired [PIAS], while Sony purchased AWAL and Warner has long been rumored to be seeking distribution acquisition targets. A combined BMG and Concord could also look to that sector to bolster its offerings and its own distribution pipeline.

There are also other acquisition targets on the market, including tech companies, publishers, and digital solutions and marketing firms. However, one rumor that has been making the rounds — that Kobalt is in their sights — seems far-fetched, as Kobalt sold off all of its catalog and distribution arm and is now mainly a publishing administration platform, albeit a very successful one.

The merger would, however, be brutal on the combined entity’s headcount. Sources suggest that BMG has about 900 employees and Concord has about 800 — and industry observers speculate that if the two companies strike a deal, massive layoffs are likely to follow. As one financial source puts it, “The more they slash, the more profitable it will become.”